Real need on betting tips absolutely is right for undergoing not only the very present betting activities but also the future ones. Basic knowledge on the needed main topic is very important because of the more and more challenging games provided inside.
Although all of the betting programs are unpredictable because of their reliable algoritm, secure built online system, easy-to-apply betting models, but bettings like sports betting should be based on the excellent knowledge. Especially for the honorably welcome new comers or players, it is so suggested or even advised to be with the solution offered.
Learning from those who have been preceding us, for example, really is highly smart step whereas if should consider the further next times. That betting is not only about money presented in various currencies like punds or bucks, undoubtedly it is quite unquestionable and unavoidable.
Through the reliable way, so many possible things would be more and more supporting and ensuring the needed up-growing or development. Ripe experiences would sharpen and strengthen the skills that are waiting for the real actions.
Emotion is the most influential factor on the betting option that profoundly should be in the highest concerning. It moves inside of the body continually, dynamically and optimistically but what called as its existence could be managed with the smart tips, guide and advice.
Soccer experts provide you with betting tips, the media publishes the latest news about the opponent teams and their key players, bookmakers support hundreds of betting methods… However, when you finally place your huge wager on a sure favorite, this is the time to start praying… Unfortunately, the world of soccer betting is quite unpredictable. There are thousands of factors playing against us. How can we cut our betting losses? The only way to do it is by using money management strategies.
This article summarizes the methods and strategies of betting money management and provides a statistical comparison of their performance based on betting odds and match results of top European leagues.
The most common betting money management strategies in our days are: Martingale, Row of numbers and Kelly criterion. While the first two do not require any prior information, Kelly criterion requires the punter to know the probability of a win.
DEFINITIONS
Before presenting the performance analysis, a brief description of the above-mentioned strategies is necessary:
– Martingale strategy means doubling the stack after a loss and returning back to the starting stack after a win. This strategy is the most popular today and promises positive profits, but requires intensive money investments.
– Row of numbers means planning a series of constant profits. Given betting odds, the punter calculates each stake in a way that will allow him to make the planned profit. In case he loses, he should increase the next stack in such a way the profit will return both the money already lost and the planned profits for the lost games. This strategy is less aggressive than Martingale but still dangerous.
– Kelly criterion: mathematically proven to be the best strategy in the long run. However, it requires knowing the probability of a win. The stacks are calculated in proportion of the size of your funds and according to the relation between the probability of a win and the betting odds. When probability and odds are high, a high stack will be placed and vice versa.
DATA AND METHODS
In order to evaluate the performance of each strategy, we analyzed the betting odds set by bookmakers for the top European leagues. Imagine that bookmakers are punters who place a stake on a favorite with minimal betting odds. One can easily estimate the probability of a win by dividing the average number of home/draw/away outcomes by the total number of games in a season.
The betting odds and results are taken from the four European top leagues playing in the 2008/2009 season: English Premier, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1 and Spanish Primera Division.
SUMMARY
– The results show that Kelly criterion is the best money management strategy of the three with an average profit of +5% compared to +1% (Row) and +1.2% (Martingale).
– The most profitable was the French Ligue 1 with a betting profit of +22% (Kelly), +9% (Row) and +10% (Martingale).
– The least profitable was the English Premier League with a betting loses of -10% (Kelly) ), -9% (Row) and -8% (Martingale).
To be a successful punter in soccer betting, you should intelligently guess two main things: the probability of a win and the size of the stake. Online betting tips and team news can help you to estimate the probability of a win, but choosing the stake size is a more complicated task that requires each punter to decide according to his individual betting strategy.
This article summarizes a research intended to optimize the use of Kelly strategy, the most profitable of all the existing betting strategies. The research is based on a comparison between statistics of betting profits of top European soccer leagues that played during 2008/09 and those playing in 2009/10 seasons.
Data and Methods
The research was conducted based on match results and average betting odds from 60+ bookmakers taken from the following European Soccer leagues: Austrian Bundesliga, English Premier, Dutch Eredivisie, French Ligue 1, German Bundesliga 1, Greek Ethniki Katigoria, Italian Serie A, Scottish Premier, Spanish Primera Division and Turkish Super Lig.
Each match outcome receives its own value defined by multiplication: odds x probability of a win. When this value is higher than one, it is considered as a “value bet”.
The probability of home win/draw/away wins in this research is defined by the frequency of their appearance in a national tournament.
According to Kelly’s strategy, the wager for each outcome is calculated as follows: w * (p-(1-p)/(odds-1)) (w represents the wealth of the punter and p is the probability of a win). For example, if your wealth is 1000$ , p is 50% and the odds are 2.5, then the preferable wager is equal to 1000$ *(0.5 – 0.5/(2.5-1))=166$
The punter’s profit is calculated by assuming he places a wager according to the Kelly’s strategy for those outcomes whose value is the closest to the value bet defined a priory.
An optimal value bet is a bet resulting in a maximal profit for a punter.
Research Summary
According to the research, the optimal value bet for soccer betting is 1.37 (2009) compared to 1.39 (2008). The betting profit of a punter who uses Kelly’s strategy with these optimal value bets is equal to 10% in 2008 and 14% in 2009. The results show that when a punter uses Kelly’s strategy placing bets on the outcomes with an average value bet of 1.38, the betting profits will be maximal. High quality betting tips can increase the profits dramatically but the optimal value bets have to be recalculated to adapt them to the accuracy of your betting tips.
Well, betting is considered to be an adventurous filled activity, however, when you are putting your hard earned money at stake, there are certain things to be taken care off. All the soccer enthusiasts are surely much awaited about the grand soccer world cup 2010. Along with this soccer betting is something which is gaining popularity at its peak; no doubt the soccer betting industry is a million dollar industry. Also with the technological advancements, people prefer to go for online soccer betting. Just with a few mouse clicks you are able to place bets without leaving the comfort of your place.
In order to get guaranteed success on the bets, the best option is to get along with the soccer betting tips and advices. Now you must be wondering that do these tips really work? Well offocurse, because they are planned to work effectively. Tips and reviews for soccer betting can be found on website that particularly deals in guiding the players about the betting strategies.
Players who are serious about making money from soccer betting should surely take assistance of these betting experts. They guide you about the latest happenings of the soccer world, which team is strongest and perhaps has the best chances of winning. Along with a versatile range of soccer betting tips, these websites also lets you have information on free bets offers, reviews of the leading bookmakers, articles on soccer betting and soccer betting previews.
Therefore, it will not be wrong to say that these websites are good source for the novice gamblers who are confused about placing their bets. These websites generally acquaints a database and subscribers are contacted through email prior to the commencing of the games. Moreover, these websites also provides weekly tips and newsletters. It is therefore recommended to collect the required information before hand from these websites, many of the website provides the tips just free of costs.
Betting websites also let you have staking plans, for instance you can bet with a much higher amount to have optimum profits, incase you tend to lose the amount is protected by the bank. Also the websites also provide you a trail period; hence the players do not have to pay for a complete subscription period.
As the betting results cannot be predicted true for always, you have to make up your mind for negative outcome too. The expert’s advice delivers the golden rules of placing bets; the rest depends on your luck and strategies you follow. http://www.soccerbetting.info/
Soccer, tennis, horse racing or whatever, you will often hear someone say that they have a tip which “can’t be beaten”. These so called tips sometimes win but more often than not your hard earned cash will be lost until the next tip comes along and the cycle continues. Online Betting has gained a new level of population in recent years and no doubt its success has gaining new heights. For a successful betting, you should have vast knowledge about the sport; if you know the team it will be quite easy to take a uniform decision. Soccer is a world-wide famous sport, however placing soccer bets online can become a scary task if you do not know the soccer tips. Before you start placing money on any soccer tips you should carry out your own research on the source of the tips and check the track record and any testimonials if possible. You certainly should not go by what someone says down at the pub or bet on what a friend of a friend says.
Winning soccer tips are based on the number of factors, some of them include statistical analysis and situational trends. Motivational and psychological factors including team news, roster changes, injuries, and suspensions form a major part in placing bets. Generally, the soccer tips forms an edge in providing the winning soccer predictions to the players. The expert’s views are profitable, reliable, the best part, they surely profits whether you are a professional punter or a starter.
Soccer betting is like stock market investment, and is a long term investment and you should plan your strategy properly and stick to it. It is not that difficult to understand and can be profitable. This type of soccer betting is common amongst young people and I think should be legalized and monitored to avoid causing problems among our youth. By the use of statistics, experience and practice, a wise gambler can consistently beat the posted odds.
For more information contact: http://www.soccertips365.com/
